CPD-UNFPA Programme on Population and Sustainable Development

Paper 7 (Summary)

Population Momentum in Bangladesh

Ataharul Islam

OBJECTIVES

In this paper an attempt is made to examine the potential impact of the population momentum in Bangladesh. In order to investigate the impact of the population momentum, three different scenarios have been chosen on the basis of likely policy options that might emerge in the socio-economic setting of Bangladesh. The population of Bangladesh has been undergoing demographic transition and it is expected that during the next 5 to 15 years it will be possible to attain replacement level fertility. However, there might be some other factors such as the recent shifts in the population policies that can have far reaching impact on the population projections. As the long-term projections mostly depend on the policies of the government as well as on the reproductive behavior of the generations yet to be born, different scenarios have been considered for representing different options.

METHODOLOGY

This paper shows projections for the population of Bangladesh for the period 1991-2050. The three scenarios are (i) a high fertility variant with no change in mortality, (ii) low fertility variant and no change in mortality, and (iii) a low fertility variant and reduction in mortality. Bangladesh has achieved a remarkable success in reducing the level of fertility mainly due to the success in increasing the level of contraceptive prevalence during the past two decades. Hence, family planning inputs, as the major contributor in explaining the decline in the level of fertility, can provide a more realistic projection of population. The inputs for different scenarios are: the age-sex composition of the base year population, Index of marriage, Base year fertility rates, Acceptor and user method mix, Twelve months continuation rates, Contraceptives effectiveness, Mean duration of breast feeding, Sterility coefficients, and Age specific abortions rates. The FAMPLAN model is employed in these projections.

MAJOR FINDINGS

The population projections based on three scenarios indicate that the population will increase rapidly even after attaining the replacement level fertility due to an echo effect of the high fertility experienced in the past. The Scenario I option shows that the population size will be more than double in 2051 although the replacement level will be achieved in the year 2022. Similarly, Scenario II and III show more optimistic projections with the assumptions that the population will increase to 188 and 192 million respectively in 2051 after reaching the replacement level fertility in the year 2002. Both these scenarios imply that although the level of fertility will start to decline below the replacement level, the population may still increase to some extent after 2051.

The impact of population momentum on the female population aged below 5 years and 15 years has been discussed in this paper. It is shown that the females in the younger age groups could be much less in absolute numbers if the Scenario option II or III are adopted. Similarly, the rapid increase in the female population of reproductive ages will continue to increase the absolute size of the population to a great extent. Similarly, according to the scenarios the population of females and males of age 65 years and over will be 14.88 million and 15.5 million respectively in 2051. Therefore, the study indicates that in the next forty or fifty years, the increase in the old age population will pose a formidable challenge to the policy makers if necessary measures to take care of old age populations are not considered with top priority.

Hence, this paper highlights the impact of population momentum under different scenarios, so that policy makers can adopt realistic options in attaining specific goals. In other words, this provides the policy makers with sets of options that can be achieved through implementing different sets of interventions.

 

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Centre for Policy Dialogue
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Pages: 25