CPD-UNFPA
Programme on Population and Sustainable
Development
Paper 3 (Summary)
Demographic and
Economic Consequences of Aging
in Bangladesh
Professor M. Kabir
OBJECTIVE
OF THE STUDY
The main objectives of the study
are to-
·
investigate the demographic socio-economic issues that need to be
addressed for the care of elderly.
· identify policy implications
and research priorities in the
light of existing experiences.
FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
Demographic
Trends and Process
The age structure of a population
responds primarily to fertility
levels and secondly, once low
fertility levels are reached,
to mortality. The aging issue
in Bangladesh was not a main concern
until recently because the demographic
transition started only in recent
years. However, in the coming
decades, many Asian countries
including Bangladesh will experience
population aging, and the aged
population will be large in absolute
terms. Bangladesh is projected
to have 9 per cent of its population
of age 60 years and above in the
year 2025 if the fertility target
is achieved by 2005. Between 1997
and 2010, the share of the population
under fifteen years is expected
to decline by about 19 per cent
under the assumption of replacement
level fertility; whilst the share
of elderly population during the
same period will increase by about
50 per cent. Similarly, the share
of the working age population
will increase by about 38 per
cent.
The aging process is expected
to accelerate in the coming decades,
mainly because the large cohorts
born in 1950s and 1960s respectively
will be joining the ranks of 60
years and over during this period.
The decline in mortality, particularly
at young ages, also means that
a higher proportion of the large
cohorts will survive to old age.
Social
and Economic Implications of Aging
The process of development tends
to bring rapid changes in social
behaviour and institutions, which
might have adverse implications
for the care and well being of
elderly persons. The process
of population ageing may lead
to considerable increases in expenses
on social security with consequent
rise in the expenditure and their
share in national income. As is
known, the working-age population
(aged 15-64), and the middle-age
population (aged 40-54) form the
core of the total labour force.
With population ageing, the people
in this middle core increasingly
shoulder the double burden of
simultaneously supporting their
children and also their elderly
parents. In Bangladesh, old age
security or pensions cover only
a small proportion of the elderly
and mainly those who are in the
formal sector. Many elderly continue
to work well beyond the age of
60. With the inflationary effects
reducing the purchasing power
of money, those with little savings
and meagre earnings, the poorer
segments of the population, have
in many instances to sell their
property to meet their ordinary
day to day expenses. Pensions
are often not adjusted correspondingly
to cover the inflationary consequences.
Most elderly people, therefore,
have to continue to work up to
advanced ages, and depend almost
entirely on family support during
their later years. The care and
the support provided to elderly
parents in Bangladesh is usually
in the form of shared housing,
food and other necessities of
life and less often in the form
of direct transfers of income
in the forms of transfers and/or
remittances. The risk-insurance
motive to high fertility depends
critically on strong filial bonds,
and institutions that encourage
sons to support their parents
in old age. In rural Bangladesh,
sons are encouraged to fulfil
their filial responsibilities
through their economic dependence
on their parent, and intergenerational
transfer of property plays an
important role here. However,
this situation is also undergoing
changes due to higher educational
achievements of the younger generations,
which could also lead to a decline
in the role of the aged. The living
arrangements often are not indicative
of the care and support given
to the parents.
Urbanisation and population growth
have reduced the proportion of
families which
have control over
productive resources. With the
shift from informal to a formal
economy, the elderly are likely
to face even fewer opportunities
for productive engagement. Physical
separation may also reduce the
financial support in terms of
remittances, partly because of
the high cost of urban living
or the loss of emotional ties
between parents and children as
a consequence of prolonged absence.
Other factors include occupational
and geographical mobility, urbanisation,
and the increased proportion of
women working outside the household.
Although younger members of the
family are leaving the home of
their parents in increasing numbers,
their economic responsibility
towards the elderly does not wither
away. They continue to provide
support to their elderly, but
find it increasingly difficult
to live with elderly members in
joint households. Such structural
changes might make it increasingly
difficult to care for the elderly.
Increasing rural/urban migration
has also resulted in the development
of squatter and shantytowns next
to conglomerates in many of the
big cities in Asia. The elderly
in such situations have to be
totally responsible for themselves
and depend on external support
since the living expenses are
prohibitively high.
A
Conceptual Framework
A conceptual framework is developed
in the paper to understand the
factors which affect the ageing
process and its demographic and
socio-economic consequences. The
well-being of the elderly in terms
of socio-economic level, physical
and emotional health, living arrangements,
pattern of exchange and support,
and other intergenerational relations
is a function of three interrelated
factors. First, the political,
socio-cultural and economic systems
(political structure, cultural
and social dimensions and level
of economic development) of a
society. Second, demographic structures
of the society (fertility, mortality,
age structure, migration, urbanisation,
marriage and divorce, and labour
force dynamics). Third, policies
and programs pursued by the governments.
The main factors that contribute
to induce the ageing process in
Bangladesh are the demographic
factors: the
downward trend of fertility
and mortality rates. Besides the
demographic factors, economic
factors, rapid urbanisation and
the improvement of health care
facilities also do, to some extent,
directly or indirectly influence
the process of ageing in Bangladesh.
The broad cultural, socio-economic
and demographic dimensions shift
over time, and present opportunities
and constraints that affect the
development of programmes and
impinge directly on the welfare
of the elderly. The framework
of policy support and the
programs are shaped not only by
the needs of the elderly but also
by the economic and political
power which the older segment
of the population
can exert
on society.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Despite the smaller proportion
of elderly population in Bangladesh
at present compared to most South Asian countries, the
absolute figure is large because
of the sheer size of the population
in Bangladesh. Given the dynamics
of the ageing process,
the old age
dependency ratio will increase
significantly by the year 2025
if the fertility decline continues
as per target. Amongst the aged
population about 50 per cent will
be 70 years
of age and above. Due
to the changes in social structure
including the transition from
extended to nuclear and smaller
families and different time dimensions,
the future needs and demands of
the elderly for recreation, medical
facilities, transportation and
housing may look quite different
than what appears to be the case
at present.
According to the study Bangladesh
should recognise the danger of
not considering the ageing issues
and problems, especially in view
of the fact that the cohorts have
already been born and their numbers
and characteristics are known.
Bangladesh should incorporate
an ageing component into her long-term
planning. This will help in designing
appropriate social responses to
the changing needs of the elderly. Research
and policy analysis needs to be
undertaken to arrive at an estimate
on the physical and human resources
which are required to service
the growing needs of the elderly
people in order to provide them
with an appropriate combination
of social and family support. Given
that provident fund, pension and
social security programs in Bangladesh
which are allocated for the elderly
are inadequate, and have low coverage
(and often do not exist at all),
the study recommends that GOB
should give high priority to the
establishment of a "safety
net" for the elderly. In
view of the prevailing unemployment
situation in Bangladesh, extending
the age of retirement and taking
up initiatives towards the generation
of employment opportunities for
elderly may not be feasible options
for Bangladesh. Long- term planning
is required to cater to the changing
needs over time of the young,
elderly and working-age populations
in order to ensure that adequate
resources are available when and
where they are needed. Since
the process of population ageing
involves an increase in the old-old
(70 years and over) share of the
elderly population, and the consequences
of ageing are different for old-old
and the young-old (60-69) elderly,
it becomes important to take account
of the needs and concerns of both
age groups in the formulation
of policies and programs. Recognising
that the family remains the central
unit in terms of supporting the
elderly in rural Bangladesh, the
paper stresses the need to
complement this support with a
wide variety of home care and
community-based services, particularly
for those with special needs and
the old-old elderly. In this regard,
the study emphasises the need
for establishing local level institutions
which are sensitive to local
conditions, which at the same
time are not regimented and are dedicated to the promotion of
greater community involvement
and participation for the betterment
of the elderly.
RESEARCH PRIORITY
The
importance of cultural change,
the interdependency between age
groups and the benefit of providing
opportunities for elderly population
needs to be investigated within
the cultural context of the country.
The multidimensional implications
of the ageing population interrelated
with the important and dynamic
processes of demographic and socio-cultural
changes affecting all age groups
at the family, community and national
levels need to be studied in depth.
There has been little research
on the socio-economic and physical
well being of the elderly and
factors affecting their status
in Bangladesh context. According
to the study research should address
the demographic, social, and economic
characteristics of the elderly
population in Bangladesh and their
implications for public policy.
Given this broad objective the
major research issue is to investigate
the effects of social change and
the policy relevance of those
effects. Surveys of elderly must
move beyond the narrow confines
of the household, and information
should be obtained about the characteristics
and location of all the respondent's
children and other close relatives,
such as parents and other siblings.
This mapping of kin availability
provides a measure of respondent's
potential support network and
adds considerable insight beyond
the simple fact of co-residence.
Other areas of research may include
monitoring the evolving interrelationships
between cultural and socio-economic
shifts and the status of the elderly,
and identifying current family
arrangements and social, health
and economic characteristics to
capture the shifts in attitudes,
beliefs, and expectations that
presage future norms and behaviours.
So few of the elderly population
of Bangladesh enjoy pension or
provident fund benefits, research
on the status of self-employed
and those who have retired from
jobs could throw important insights
in terms of designing appropriate
strategies for the welfare of
the elderly population. Similarly,
research on the situation of elderly
by urban and rural divide and
by occupation could provide an indication
about the need for differential
policy packages for the elderly. Both
quantitative and qualitative research
which trace changing norms and
attitudes and emerging needs of
the aged population will be valuable
for designing and implementing
appropriate programmes for the
elderly in Bangladesh.
To
obtain the full text of this
report please contact:
Centre for Policy Dialogue
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Pages: 21
